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WCD philosopher chef (24.96.121.202) on 2/4/2021 - 7:14 p.m. says: ( 35 views , 5 likes )

"Perspective on COVID -- in line w/ our science people here"

One of our church leaders teaches army residents at Benning's Martin Army sent this out to our members about why our policy is what it is. 

 

  1. 1.       The illness is real.  There has been a roughly 12% increase in “excess deaths” worldwide this year (Wall Street Journal), mostly attributed to COVID infections.  Additionally, deaths from heart disease, stroke, dementia and respiratory diseases increased by 7% last year (and some/many of these may’ve been caused by COVID). Cancer deaths are way down (a trend starting in 2017) and some who have claimed that other diseases have been falsely labeled as COVID are likely misinterpreting data.   There is now consensus that excess deaths have been occurring every week in the U.S. since MARCH 2020 and at least 2/3 are attributed to COVID.  300,000 more people than expected died in the U.S. this past year so the notion that our death rate has not increased is inaccurate.
  2. 2.       The illness is still active. We just completed our January medicine review at Ft. Benning this morning. January was the busiest month since the pandemic began (more cases and hospitalized patients) and hospitals in town have been full and unable to accept our sickest patients for transfer.  Thankfully, the beginning of February seems to be showing an early downward trend.  We hope that continues.  Changing our policies in the face of this current medical/clinical local reality seems premature.
  3. 3.       Masks work.  The size of the virus is not the main factor here. Droplet spread is reduced by masks and the virus hitches rides on droplets in contrast to aerosols like TB, measles, chicken pox, and influenza. At this time, NO STUDY has demonstrated active spread of COVID by airborne means alone and ALL CREDIBLE evidence suggests mitigation of spread by mask use.
  4. 4.       Hand-washing works.  We’ve seen reductions in spread of COVID, influenza, strep this season attributed to the populations focus on hygiene compared to prior years.
  5. 5.       Treatments:

    1. a.       REMDESIVIR: This works. It was initially developed for Ebola virus, but use results in a 31% improvement in recovery in the sickest COVID patients. IV use.
    2. b.       MONOCLONAL antibodies (bamlanivimab): This works.  FDA emergency use authorization for non-hospitalized COVID + patients at high risk.  IV infusion.  Works best if given soon after symptoms start and BEFORE hospitalization.
    3. c.       DEXAMETHASONE: This works sometimes. Most beneficial for patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Oral or IV use.  Reduced death by 36%, BUT may be HARMFUL for patients with milder illnesses.
    4. d.       HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE: This does NOT work.  FDA revoked authorization for use based on LARGE studies showing NO benefit and increased risks of serious heart rhythm problems.
    5. e.       CONVALESCENT PLASMA (donated by people who’ve recovered from COVID): Might work. Possibly effective in lessening severity of illness and protecting those not yet infected.
    6. f.        IVERMECTIN: This does NOT work. It’s an anti-parasitic drug tested in Australia and Peru.  Safety and efficacy still unknown. Studies at 10 times human dosing still do not kill COVID in lung tissue. No reduced mortality in systematic reviews.
    7. g.       INTERFERON and LOPINAVIR/RITONAVIR: Does NOT work.  Studies in 30 countries showed “little to NO effect on mortality or hospitalization”.
    8. h.       VITAMINS: There are NO vitamins or supplements known to help prevent coronavirus, including COVID-19. Certain nutrients may help your immune system strong and help its ability to fight the virus These include vitamin D, high-dose vitamin C, zinc and potassium if you're deficient.  There is some evidence to suggest that vitamin D might help protect against becoming infected with, and developing serious symptoms of, COVID-19. We know, for example, that people with low vitamin D levels may be more susceptible to upper respiratory tract infections.
  6. 6.       VACCINES (ultimately the KEY intervention for ending the pandemic, without doubt.  However, all of these are currently only approved for non-pregnant adults):

    1. a.       Pfizer: 95% effective, 2 shots.  Requires -90 degree freezer which is hard to find.
    2. b.       Moderna: 94% effective, 2 shots.  Requires extra cold freezer, easier to find.
    3. c.       AstraZeneca: 70% effective, 2 shots.
    4. d.       Johnson & Johnson: 66% effective, 1 shot.  Just needs refrigeration.

 

WARNINGS:

  1. 1.       Some treatment claims are based on “desperation medicine” springing from COVID-fatigue and are not fully tested, partially or scientifically biased, or simply untrue.  Time may tell on others.  Countless researchers are expending enormous effort day after day to see which interventions are helpful and which are not.  I also hope for a “magic bullet”, but am a realist.  If it turns out vitamins do work, off to Sam’s I go for the mega-bottle.
  2. 2.       Some physicians are using “arguments from authority” (“I am a doctor so I know what I’m talking about”).  Truth is truth, whether voiced by a physician or a layman.  That applies to my statements too.  Remember, a “doctor” started the anti-vaccine movement about 20 years ago with his claims about a link with autism and the measles vaccine.  This has been COMPLETELY AND TOTALLY debunked.  His license was stripped and he got to go to jail, but he caused ENORMOUS damage to the nation’s healthcare push, in which vaccines have played a crucial role.  There are other well-meaning physicians making a variety of claims about effective treatments and SOME may turn out to be right while others are looney.  Time will tell, but what we know with some degree of certainty is listed above.
  3. 3.       Perhaps more concerning is the growing anti-science movement in the evangelical church.  I think this is a dangerous trend that has the potential for stomping on our message.  I strongly believe we should guard against joining hands with anti-vaxxers, flat-earthers, Covid-deniers, and others.  However, this is a growing and documented trend that has a small toe-hold at St. Andrews.  I have some fear that this trend does risk spreading as the frustration level of the congregation increases and the human characteristic of ‘listening for what you want to hear’ continues.
  4. 4.       Remembering that everyone has an opinion, and that those opinions are not necessarily based on “fear versus faith” or “believing God versus not”, is important.  It is also true, however, that not everyone’s opinion will ultimately be proven correct.  “Facts may often change one’s feelings, but one’s feelings never change the facts”.

 

Things are changing all the time, so I’ll keep trying to keep folks up to date from my end as much as I can.

CC

 

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Starred by: aubie in bham    iPhoneHobbes    Leo Sims    WAR DAMN EAGLE    Aubiece   
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“There is no character, howsoever good and fine, but it can be destroyed by ridicule, howsoever poor and witless. Observe the ass, for instance: his character is about perfect, he is the choicest spirit among all the humbler animals, yet see what ridicule has brought him to. Instead of feeling complimented when we are called an ass, we are left in doubt.”  Mark Twain 




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