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chemosabe
anonymous snipe artist
(69.137.172.133) on 7/15/2020 - 6:42 a.m. says: ( 30 views
, 6 likes
)
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"I can’t comment on Georgia but I can on Florida"
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Message Replied To ==========
Chemo, I'd appreciate your take on this report on rise in GA cases. . . .
https://amberschmidtkephd.substack.com/p/the-daily-digest-13jul2020?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&utm_source=copy ==============================
I simply don’t have time to follow each state but for Florida:
1) the rise in Florida cases appears centered on localities that did NOT reopen as quickly as others. That is interesting because, if it was due to reopening, one would expect those cities that reopened quickly would be hit the worst yet they were not. The CDC dis contact tracing to find out why Miami, Broward, Palm Beach, Tampa were hit bad yet Jax, Orlando not so much. What they found was that people, mainly millennials, just started having house parties (and sand bar parties) when bars and beaches were closed. The lockdowns made almost no difference. Stupid is as stupid does.
2) the rise is almost all millennials with the average age of positivity now below 30 (hint:that is not the average age in Florida). This may not end up being a bad thing if they develop herd immunity without becoming ill.
3) the “percent positive” stats can not be trusted because many (hundreds) of testing sites failed to report negative tests. That inflated the numbers. Even despite this, when Florida’s #new cases increases to 15000 from 10,000, our number of total tests has increased from 40,000 to 150,000 (likely more due to the lack of reporting of negative tests). Why would centers not report negative tests? Because we typically ONLY report positive tests for reportable diseases. I suspect the clerks at these centers did not realize they were supposed to report ALL tests and defaulted to the normal procedure.
Keep in mind we still have a huge problem with testing accuracy in that 30-50% of tests are false negatives. A British epidemiologist (Covid survivor) has made some YouTube videos on this if you want to “get in the weeds”. He named his channel “RUN-DMC” oddly enough.
4) the millennial surge in cases is spilling over to their parents as we are seeing an increase in admissions to hospitals. It is well below capacity, however, as most of the ICU admissions are people with other illnesses that were ignored during the previous lockdown. I am extremely busy doing “preop clearances” for people trying to get surgeries that were put off for months (and befire any future lockdown is reinitiated)
5) Florida’s death rate remains very low despite our having the largest at risk population in the world. This is due to the measures out governor has taken to keep COVID out of nursing homes, to make extra capacity in ventilators/staff available where needed (see Miami) . Despite the Lounge and media spin, DeSantis is doing one of the best jobs in the country. Of course, low bar is low bar and Cuomo set the bar basement low after seemingly intentionally killing people by sending COVID in to nursing homes. That decision remains a head scratcher...
6) we had a large influx of people from the NE as soon as they relaxed their restrictions. My anecdotal experience is that they are renting and buying properties here (according to my real estate friends) and some brought more virus down with them. I don’t see them though because I am so busy it takes three weeks to get in to see me now so they would have naturally quarantined
7) I only recently got out of quarantine myself. My son disobeyed me and went to a bar in Tampa to meet a girl a month ago. he He moved in with us for a few weeks before starting his new job, he developed the sniffles a few days later. Because of what I do I made him get tested. He was positive. That forced me to put our entire family in quarantine until we were all proven negative. He recovered and has now moved to Atlanta and started working. I, my wife and my daughter all tested negative despite close contact with him..but I suspect my wife’s test is a false negative because she also had the sniffles and loss of smell. I will test for antibodies in all of us next week because that is the time they should be at their peak in relation to our exposures.
I believe about 1/3 of what I read/see in the news and nothing on the internet. I am now relying totally on my twice a week briefings from Cleveland Clinic/ CDC. This is centered on Florida which is why I can’t be specific about what is going on in Georgia
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