Message Replied To ==========
To add insult to injury.
Watching the Gulf for another potential tropical cyclone
The last thing that residents of Texas and Louisiana need is another tropical system to worry about. Alas, computer models suggest that another tropical cyclone could develop in the western Gulf of Mexico next week. Fortunately, all signals are that this would be a much weaker system that Harvey was, even if it does form. Wind shear is predicted to relax over the Bay of Campache by early next week, and a tropical depression could take shape over the bay’s warm waters. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am Thursday, NHC gave near-zero odds of anything developing in the area through Sunday, and only 20% odds of at least a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Ensemble model runs from Wednesday night provide limited support for the idea of a depression or weak tropical storm moving north from the Bay of Campeche next week. About two-thirds of the GFS ensemble members, but only about 20% of the European ensemble members, develop at least a depression by Tuesday. Among the 00Z Thursday runs of our top three operational models for longer-range forecasting (the GFS, Euro, and UKMET), only the Euro developed the western Gulf system, although the 06Z GFS run has a slow-moving weak cyclone traversing the northwest Gulf late next week, much like the 00Z Euro run.
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1. The Lounge is sucking harder than usual;
2. The Lounge server is in South Florida; and
3. One and possibly another serious hurricane has been sucked into the Gulf of Mexico within 10 days.
