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I know I'll be preaching to the choir here. Here's a post I made on another football message board. Shockingly, the Rust Belters didn't seem to like the analysis very much.
Since everything fans beat their chests about….undefeated
seasons, “national titles”, winning percentage, top tier bowls, etc is all
affected by the strength of the opponents they play, let’s take a look at the
top 20 teams in overall winning percentage and compare them.There are some huge differences in the
toughness of the opponents different teams have played over the years.
- The only outlier is Miami
of Ohio which I will ignore.They
played very very few games against the other top 20 teams-certainly not
enough to skew the overall numbers.
- Rankings listed here are
only how a program compares to the other 18 listed, not all of college
football
- All data from CFDW
Observations:
1)Notice who is most likely to hang an “L” on you even if
you’re good.Now notice who is most
widely recognized for having the most MNC’s/prestige.Notice anything?The teams most likely to beat good teams are
the ones which are almost universally recognized for having the most MNC’s.
That’s no coincidence.
2)Large differences between a team’s overall winning
percentage and winning percentage vs good teams show who has benefitted from
playing a weaker schedule….and who has been harmed by playing a tougher
schedule.The Delta winning percentage
particularly shows this….if there is a large delta it means that team has
benefitted from playing weaker opponents
3)Pay particular attention to the percent of games
against other top 20 opponents in overall winning percentage.This shows us how tough your schedules really
were.
MICHIGAN
Total Games played = 1232
Overall Winning percentage = 73.45%
Rank = #1
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 208
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 56.25%
Rank = #5
Delta Winning percentage = -17.20%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 16.88%
Rank = #13
Conclusions: easy schedules.More than half of all games vs other top 20 programs have been vs Ohio
State.Still, the delta in the winning
percentage is moderate.They’re not an
easy out historically
NOTRE DAME
Total Games played = 1182
Overall Winning percentage = 73.27%
Rank = #2
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 242
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 59.71%
Rank = #1
Delta Winning percentage = -13.56%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 20.47%
Rank = #11
Conclusion: moderate to easy schedules, but they do beat
good teams at a very high rate slightly edging out Bama.As much crap as they catch for their
schedules, others have been easier.
TEXAS
Total Games played = 1212
Overall Winning percentage = 71.73%
Rank = #3
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 196
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 57.91%
Rank = #3
Delta Winning percentage = -13.82%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 16.17%
Rank = #14
Conclusion: Their schedule has been cake but at least when
they do play good teams they beat them at a pretty high rate.
OKLAHOMA
Total Games played = 1169
Overall Winning percentage = 71.70%
Rank = #4
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 240
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 46.67%
Rank - #14
Delta Winning percentage = -25.03%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 29.53%
Rank = #10
Conclusion: moderate to easy schedule and a very large
difference in performance vs good teams and the rest.
OHIO STATE
Total Games played = 1181
Overall Winning percentage = 71.59%
Rank = #5
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 201
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 47.51%
Rank = #13
Delta Winning percentage = -24.08%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 17.02%
Rank = #12
Conclusions another very large difference in performance vs
good teams and the rest.Easy schedules
have again helped a lot.
ALABAMA
Total Games played = 1164
Overall Winning percentage = 70.75%
Rank = #6
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 430
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 59.42%
Rank = #2
Delta Winning percentage = -11.33%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 36.94%
Rank #2
Conclusion: Just extremely impressive.Very tough schedules overall and yet Alabama
just beats good teams anyway.This is
the 2nd most likely program to beat other good opponents and the gap
between them and ND is very slight….but their schedules are significantly
harder.
USC
Total Games played = 1134
Overall Winning percentage = 70.50%
Rank = #7
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 274
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 57.12%
Rank = #4
Delta Winning percentage = -13.08%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 24.16%
Rank = #9
Conclusions: Reasonably good schedules and they beat good
teams at a good clip.They deserve their
blue blood status.
NEBRASKA
Total Games played = 1233
Overall Winning percentage = 70.13%
Rank = #8
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 199
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 47.74%
Rank = #13
Delta Winning percentage = -22.39%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 16.14%
Rank = #15
Conclusions: Easy schedules overall have helped a lot and
there is a large difference in performance vs good opponents and the rest.
TENNESSEE
Total Games played = 1183
Overall Winning percentage = 68.99%
Rank = #9
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 293
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 49.32%
Rank = #7
Delta Winning percentage = -19.67%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 24.77%
Rank = #8
Conclusions reasonably good schedules overall but they have
struggled more often than their overall winning percentage would suggest when
faced by better opponents.
PENN STATE
Total Games played = 1219
Overall Winning percentage = 68.94%
Rank = #10
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 134
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 48.51%
Rank = #10
Delta Winning percentage = -20.43%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 10.99%
Rank = #17
Conclusions simply put one of the easiest schedules of any
top shelf program.They do not perform
nearly as well against good teams.
fsu
Total Games played = 712
Overall Winning percentage = 66.36%
Rank = #11
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 223
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 48.65%
Rank = #9
Delta Winning percentage = -17.71%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 31.32%
Rank = #5
Conclusions Good schedules, definitely better than
most.There is a moderate difference in
how they perform against good opponents vs the rest.
GEORGIA
Total Games played = 1188
Overall Winning percentage = 64.36%
Rank = #12
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 379
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 48.15%
Rank = #11
Delta Winning percentage = -16.21%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 31.90%
Rank = #4
Conclusions definitely tough schedules. Only a moderate
difference in how they perform against good opponents vs overall.
LSU
Total Games played = 1157
Overall Winning percentage = 64.32%
Rank = #13
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 305
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 44.10%
Rank = #16
Delta Winning percentage = -20.22%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 26.36%
Rank = #7
Conclusions: pretty good schedules but a fairly large
difference in performance vs good opponents and the rest
miami
Total Games played = 899
Overall Winning percentage = 63.35%
Rank = #14
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 266
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 46.62%
Rank = #15
Delta Winning percentage = -16.73%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 29.59%
Rank = #6
Conclusions Tough schedule and a moderate difference in
performance vs good teams and the rest
AUBURN
Total Games played = 1157
Overall Winning percentage = 63.17%
Rank = #15
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 422
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 48.93%
Rank = #8
Delta Winning percentage = -14.24%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 36.47%
Rank = #3
Conclusions Utterly brutal schedules.Brutal.Low delta vs how they perform against good opponents and the rest.This is a better program than many realize.
FLORIDA
Total Games played = 1081
Overall Winning percentage = 63.09%
Rank = #16
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 431
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 50.35%
Rank = #6
Delta Winning percentage = -12.74%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 39.877%
Rank = #1
Conclusions THE most brutal schedule in America and its not
close – not even remotely close.One of
the lowest delta’s in America between performance vs good teams and the rest.
WASHINGTON
Total Games played = 1126
Overall Winning percentage = 61.33%
Rank = #18
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 169
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 36.98%
Rank = #18
Delta Winning percentage = -24.35%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 15.01%
Rank #16
Conclusions easy schedules and a big difference in
performance vs good opponents and everybody else.
ARIZONA STATE
Total Games played = 931
Overall Winning percentage = 61.10%
Rank = #17
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 81
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 37.04%
Rank
Delta Winning percentage = -24.06%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 8.70%
Rank = #18
Conclusions ridiculously easy schedules and this program has
not performed nearly as well when faced by tougher opponents
VA TECH
Total Games played = 1156
Overall Winning percentage = 60.73%
Rank = #20
Total Games vs historic top 20 = 92
Winning percentage vs historic top 20 = 36.96%
Rank = #19
Delta Winning percentage = -23.77%
Percent of games vs historic top 20 = 7.96%
Rank #19
Conclusions: here we have it.THE easiest schedule of any program in the
top 20 and a large difference in performance vs good teams vs everybody else.
Overall Conclusions :It’s a whole lot easier to avoid losing
ballgames when you don’t play as many games against teams more likely to beat
you.
