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Of the Top 6, we do have a bit of an uphill climb. Add in the smaller town atmosphere (though Auburn isn't THAT much smaller than an Athens or Gainesville, it at least feels that way), being the only one that's not named for the state (silly, but I think it matters to a few recruits a year), and the perception that it's in the country (again, not that much further from a major city than any of the others...if you want to call B-ham major for uat...but it feels that way)...and Auburn ends up with more strikes.
That being said, there is a solid tradition, a solid fan base, plenty of TV exposure, plenty of NFL history, good facilities, etc. I think that base, and the potential to recruit regionally (we're closer to a lot of GA than UGA, closer to a chunk of FL than UF) has served us well over time. In the last 25 years, I think we can match up reasonably over time with any of the top 6.
That being said, the bottom six don't want to stay there (see SOS to USC, everyone else changing coaches until someday one of them will find the right one). The rest of the top six don't want to be sixth (or fifth, or fourth for that matter). Auburn doesn't either. Under CTT, other than 2004, we've probably been 5th...maybe 4th. UF and LSU have been 1/2 IMO, UGA probably solidly 3rd (consistency paying off here). With the other 3 having to debate the bottom 3 slots.
I do NOT see CTT getting us to a consistent 1 or 2, and I don't think that there is any evidence to think that he can. I think it's more likely, given the situations at the other 5, that we hover more around where we've been, or slip to generally 6th. 5-3/6-2 in conference with a year every 5 with 0 or 1 loss, and a year every 5 like this one. If an OM or UK finds unearths a great coach finally (or god forbid TWO of the bottom 6 do), we could slide into mediocrity quickly.
I did some analysis recently, too tedious to post here (yes, even drier than the rest of this ramble). In summation,
- Jetgate really hurt our recruiting, not just in 03, but in 04 (the undefeated season should have paid off more) and with CTT in limbo and other teams doing well, it isn't going to get much better
- Recruiting in has stagnated. In the last 2 (and present commits), we have 2 kids from SC,NC,TN,KY and only 11 from GA (when GT has struggled) out of about 85. 55%+ have been from FL or AL. The GA issue bothers me
- Of our top 50ish players, we'll lose about 10, but that's due to that class being particularly weak
- The Jr class, that should be the strong one, only has 11-12
- Next year's schedule, with away games to UGA, LSU, UT and Ark (plus at home vs uat and WVU) has no bye until Nov 21 and could range from 6-6 to 10-2 (UT and Ark are still in transition and uat and WVU should be beatable)
On the 'pro' CTT side, the kids have generally been good off the field and seem to go to class. No major embarassments.
With the SEC as it is, I think AU can find and afford a coach that CAN get us into the upper echelons of the SEC and still perform off the field. I have no issue if CTT gets another year to try. Anything less than 10 wins though would be unacceptable IMO. The streak is over. 2004 is now (for us) 5 seasons ago. It's time for CTT to step up and recover the program, or move on.
