 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Back |
Previous on Jeremy Bosch Memorial HOF |
Next on Jeremy Bosch Memorial HOF |
war damn stu
(68.218.22.82) on 11/25/2005 - 11:04 a.m. says: ( 6 views
)
|
"The issue of being "down""
|
|
[Disclaimer: This is not aimed at our Bama brethren here, who seem to be level-headed and reasonable. This is merely a reaction to the Phyllises and Shanes of the world]
I’ve heard it said by some Alabama fans that the only way Auburn can beat Bama is when Bama is “down.” This argument usually includes the assertion that Auburn’s success only occurs when Bama is “down,” implying that the state of Alabama’s program determines whether or not Auburn can beat Alabama.
I’ve heard this argument enough times that I finally decided to look into recent history to see if there’s any evidence to support it. For the purposes of this research, I looked at the last 20 seasons (1986-2005). Additionally, I made the following assumptions:
If a team recorded 9 wins or more, they are not considered “down.”
If a team recorded 8 wins, I labeled them “mediocre.”
If a team recorded 7 wins or fewer, they are considered “down.”
** Even though the record books have been changed to show that Bama forfeited most of 1993, they actually finished 9-3-1 that season, and I’m going with this record rather than the NCAA’s penalized version.
Over these last 20 seasons, here’s what I found:
PEAK TIME
When Auburn has won or shared the SEC title (4 times), Bama was “down” twice, and the other two years Bama finished 9-3 and 10-2. Auburn won all 4 games in these SEC title years.
Therefore, when Auburn has won the SEC, Bama was down only half the time.
When Alabama has won or shared the SEC title (3 times), Auburn was “down” twice (1992, 1999). The other year, 1989, Alabama lost to Auburn…and they shared the SEC title.
Therefore, when Alabama has won the SEC, their 2 wins over Auburn occurred when the Tigers were down, and the year that Auburn was not down, Bama lost to the Tigers.
OVERALL, REGARDLESS OF SEC TITLES
In the last 20 years (1986-2005), Auburn is 12-8 versus Alabama.
In Auburn’s 12 wins over Alabama, here’s the distribution:
When Bama has 9 or more wins: 6
When Bama has 8 wins: 1
When Bama has 7 or fewer wins: 5
In Bama’s 8 wins over Auburn, here’s the distribution:
When Auburn has 9 or more wins: 1
When Auburn has 8 wins: 2
When Auburn has 7 or fewer wins: 5
CONCLUSION
Make what you will of these statistical facts. I think they speak loud and clear – Six of Auburn’s 12 wins versus the Tide came when Bama had 9 or more wins on the season. Conversely, Alabama has only beaten Auburn once (out of 8 wins) when the Tigers recorded 9 or more wins for the year.
Facts are facts. While there are some reasonable Alabama fans, there are plenty of irrational, caveman-logic prone, delusional, ratbags out there who will explode and deny that these facts are really facts. And for them, I suggest they visit www.cfbdatawarehouse.com
In the meantime, here’s a summary of the each team’s wins by year, with the loser’s record for that season
Years Auburn Beat the Tide
1986 10-3
1987 7-5
1988 9-3
1989 10-2
1993 9-3-1
1995 8-3
1997 4-7
2000 3-8
2002 10-3
2003 4-9
2004 6-6
2005 9-2
Years Bama Beat the Tigers
1990 8-3-1
1991 5-6
1992 5-5-1
1994 9-1-1
1996 8-4
1998 3-8
1999 5-6
2001 7-5
Another interesting factoid - The composite record for each team the last 20 years:
Auburn 166-67-5
Alabama 166-77-1
|
|
