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Owl
(209.56.200.119) on 11/9/2005 - 9:20 a.m. says: ( 5 views
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"Let's look at this rationally."
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If Alabama beats LSU and:
Auburn beats Georgia and Alabama: Auburn goes to SECC
Auburn beats Georgia and loses to Alabama: Alabama goes to SECC and goes undefeated.
Auburn loses to Georgia and beats Alabama: Alabama goes to SECC
Auburn loses to both Georgia and Alabama: Alabama goes to SECC and goes undefeated.
RESULT: The most likely result of an Alabama win over LSU is Alabama going to the SECC. It is more likely that Alabama will go undefeated then Auburn will go to the SECC under these conditions. Even if we assume Auburn has even odds of beating Georgia and a 75% chance of beating Alabama, there is still only a 37% chance that Auburn will go to the SECC and a 63% chance Alabama will. If the chances of Auburn beating Alabama fall below 70%, then it becomes more likely that Alabama will go undefeated than Auburn will go to the SECC under these conditions.
If Alabama loses to LSU and:
Auburn beats Georgia and Alabama, LSU over UA: LSU goes to SECC
Auburn beats Georgia and Alabama, UA over LSU: Auburn goes to SECC
Auburn beats Georgia and loses to Alabama, LSU over UA: LSU goes to SECC
Auburn beats Georgia and loses to Alabama, UA over LSU: Alabama goes to SECC
Auburn loses to Georgia and beats Alabama, LSU over UA: LSU goes to SECC
Auburn loses to Georgia and beats Alabama, UA over LSU: LSU goes to SECC
Auburn loses to both Georgia and Alabama, LSU over UA: LSU goes to SECC
Auburn loses to both Georgia and Alabama, UA over LSU: Alabama goes to SECC
RESULT: The most likely result of an Alabama loss would be LSU in the SECC. Since the chances of LSU losing to Arkansas are small, it is highly unlikely that either Auburn or Alabama would make the SECC. The chances are zero that Alabama would go undefeated. Using the same 50/75 ratio as above, in the unlikely case of an Arkansas victory, Auburn would have a 37% chance of going to the SECC, while Alabama would have a 25% chance.
It seems clear to me that while an Alabama loss to LSU is not an ideal situation, an Alabama win is untenable to an Auburn fan.
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