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Owl
(172.211.66.120) on 10/26/2003 - 1:03 a.m. says: ( 3 views
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"Notes on Auburn coaches and blowouts."
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(EDITED BY AUTHOR: 10/26/2003 - 1:06 a.m.) (Note: for the purposes of this post, I'm defining a "blowout loss" to be any loss by greater than 21 points.)
Since 1930, Auburn has suffered some 64 blowout losses (see Appendix 1) out of 789 games (8.1%). Of these 64 blowouts, Tuberville has presided over 8, while coaching in 57 games (14.0%). Looking at the tenures of other Auburn coaches, we find:
Tuberville - 8 Blowouts/4.66 yrs = 1.72 blowouts/yr.
Bowden - 2 Blowouts/5.5 yrs = 0.36 blowouts/yr.
Dye - 4 Blowouts/12 yrs. = 0.33 blowouts/yr.
Barfield - 5 Blowouts/5 yrs. = 1.00 blowouts/yr.
Jordan - 18 Blowouts/25 yrs. = 0.72 blowouts/yr.
Brown - 11 Blowouts/3 yrs. = 3.67 blowouts/yr.
Voyles - 10 Blowouts/4 yrs. = 2.50 blowouts/yr.
Meagher - 3 Blowouts/9 yrs. = 0.33 blowouts/yr.
Wynne - 3 Blowouts/4 yrs. = 0.75 blowouts/yr
Ranking these coaches by fewest blowouts per year, we get:
[Blowout/year rank] [coach] [overall winning %] [Conference Championships/year]
1. Dye - .711 - 0.33
1. Meagher - .558 - 0.00
3. Bowden - .731 - 0.18
4. Jordan - .675 - 0.04
5. Wynne - .591 - 0.25
6. Barfield - .536 - 0.00
7. Tuberville - .614 - 0.00
8. Voyles - .405 - 0.00
9. Brown - .172 - 0.00
There is a general trend relating frequency of blowout losses to poor overall winning percentage and lack of championships. The ranking also generally reflects public perception of the "best" (Dye, Jordan, Bowden) and the "worst" (Brown, Voyles, Barfield) coaches of the past 75 yrs. The seeming exception is Jack Meagher, who had few blowout losses, but no championships and a mediocre winning percentage. It should be noted, though, that Meagher is the third-winningest coach of this time frame (behind Jordan and Dye), and, like Chette Wynne, was known for playing brutal OOC schedules.
For analysis of Tuberville's position, it is helpful to look at where other Auburn coaches stood 4.6 years into their tenure.
[Overall winning % rank] [Coach] [Overall winning %] [Winning % after 4.66 yrs.] [Blowout/yr after 4.66 yrs.]
1. Bowden - .731 - .806 - 0.43
2. Dye - .711 - .714 - 0.33
3. Jordan - .675 - .571 - 0.72
4. Wynne - .591 - .591 - 0.75
5. Meagher - .558 - .571 - 0.33
6. Barfield - .536 - .559 - 1.07
8. Voyles - .405 - .405 - 2.50
Ranked by blowout/yr. after 4.66 yrs:
[Blowout/yr. after 4.66 yrs. rank] [coach] [overall winning %] [blowout/yr after 4.66 yrs.]
1. Meagher - .558 - 0.00
2. Dye - .711 - 0.21
3. Bowden - .731 - 0.36
4. Wynne - .591 - 0.75
5. Barfield - .536 - 1.00
6. Jordan - .675 - 1.29
7. Voyles - .405 - 2.50
8. Brown - .172 - 3.67
Tuberville, with a rate of 1.72 blowouts/yr., would fall between Voyles and Jordan.
The bad news is that a large number of blowout losses correlates highly with a poor winning percentage and no championships. (This is also common sense.) What may be good news for Tuberville can be seen in Jordan's tenure. In Jordan's first 4.66 years, he had six blowout losses, and in his seventh year, he had a national title. Thus, Jordan overcame a similar predilection to blowout losses early in his tenure to become a great coach.
The difference between Jordan and Tuberville thus far seems to be the fact that Tuberville has not seen a decline in blowouts over time as Jordan did. Jordan had three blowouts in his first year (following up Brown's 0-10, six-blowout 1950 season), one in his second, two in his third, and none in his fourth or fifth. Subsequently, he had only one blowout loss between his third and his eleventh seasons.
Tuberville, on the other hand, has seen two blowout losses each year save 2002 (which nevertheless saw one 21 pt. loss). This does not suggest a lessening of blowouts as occurred under Jordan. In Auburn coaching history, only Earl Brown and Carl Voyles have seen poorer performances in terms of rate of blowout losses, and these coaches are rightly considered to be Auburn's worst of the modern era. Based on past history, Tuberville's propensity to be blown out is highly worrisome with respect to his future as Auburn head coach.
Appendix 1
[Point differential] [Lost to] [Year] (Score) [Coach]
24 LSU 2003 (31-7) Tuberville
23 USC 2003 (23-0) Tuberville
24 Alabama 2001 (31-7) Tuberville
25 Arkansas 2001 (42-17) Tuberville
22 Florida (SECC) 2000 (28-6) Tuberville
31 Florida 2000 (38-7) Tuberville
24 Arkansas 1999 (34-10) Tuberville
24 Tennessee 1999 (24-0) Tuberville
41 Florida 1996 (51-10) Bowden
29 Penn State 1995 (43-14) Bowden
24 Ole Miss 1992 (45-21) Dye
41 Florida 1990 (48-7) Dye
28 Florida St. 1987 (34-6) Dye
34 Nebraska 1982 (41-7) Dye
42 Tennessee 1980 (42-0) Barfield
24 Florida 1978 (31-7) Barfield
27 Alabama 1977 (48-21) Barfield
31 Alabama 1976 (38-7) Barfield
28 Georgia 1976 (28-0) Barfield
28 Alabama 1975 (28-0) Jordan
35 Alabama 1973 (35-0) Jordan
28 LSU 1972 (35-7) Jordan
24 Alabama 1971 (31-7) Jordan
29 Houston 1969 (36-7) Jordan
26 Tennessee 1969 (45-19) Jordan
31 Alabama 1966 (31-0) Jordan
28 Tennessee 1966 (28-0) Jordan
27 Alabama 1965 (30-3) Jordan
38 Alabama 1962 (38-0) Jordan
34 Alabama 1961 (34-0) Jordan
28 Tennessee 1956 (35-7) Jordan
22 Texas Tech 1953 (35-13) Jordan
30 Georgia Tech 1953 (36-6) Jordan
33 Georgia Tech 1952 (33-0) Jordan
34 Clemson 1951 (34-0) Jordan
32 Georgia 1951 (46-14) Jordan
25 Ole Miss 1951 (39-14) Jordan
34 Alabama 1950 (34-0) Brown
41 Clemson 1950 (41-0) Brown
27 Miss. State 1950 (27-0) Brown
28 Tulane 1950 (28-0) Brown
41 Vanderbilt 1950 (41-0) Brown
35 Wofford 1950 (49-14) Brown
33 Ole Miss 1949 (40-7) Brown
55 Alabama 1948 (55-0) Brown
28 Georgia 1948 (42-14) Brown
47 Vanderbilt 1948 (47-0) Brown
27 Georgia Tech 1948 (27-0) Brown
22 Georgia 1947 (28-6) Voyles
28 Vanderbilt 1947 (28-0) Voyles
40 Tulane 1947 (40-0) Voyles
41 Georgia 1946 (41-0) Voyles
33 Miss. State 1946 (33-0) Voyles
32 Tulane 1946 (32-0) Voyles
26 Miami 1945 (33-7) Voyles
35 Georgia 1945 (35-0) Voyles
36 Georgia 1944 (49-13) Voyles
27 Georgia Tech 1944 (27-0) Voyles
27 Georgia Navy Pre-Flight 1942 (41-14) Meagher
32 Tulane 1941 (32-0) Meagher
24 Boston College 1940 (33-7) Meagher
27 Tulane 1931 (27-0) Wynne
27 Vanderbilt 1930 (27-0) Wynne
32 Georgia 1930 (39-7) Wynne
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